FiveThirtyEight

fivethirtyeight Very bad experience on U.S. Airways today.

fivethirtyeight Governor forecasts are running smoothly -- at last. Hope to have them up at NYTimes.com within 24 hours, and maybe sooner.

fivethirtyeight Wish more pollsters would release results among both registered *and* likely voters.

fivethirtyeight A reader reports that Zogby incorrectly referred to WA-Sen candidate Dino Rossi as "Tamath Rossi" on its current interactive poll.

fivethirtyeight [new article] In Targeting Murkowski, Tea Party Chooses Wisely http://bit.ly/bbfaVM

fivethirtyeight [new article] How Did Democrats Get Here? http://bit.ly/aANUxC

fivethirtyeight Spilled a drink on my laptop this morning. Not good. Amazing what a little water can do to modern technology.

fivethirtyeight [new article] The Democrats' New Normal http://bit.ly/ar5EA6

fivethirtyeight In some ways, governors' races are more like Presidential races than Senate races.

fivethirtyeight Figured out how to account for the economic performance of a state in a very cool way in our Governor forecasting model.

fivethirtyeight Governor polls are weird: incumbents OVER-perform their numbers in many circumstances. But maybe not in a cycle like this one.

fivethirtyeight [new article] With Increase in Partisanship, Fewer Surprises Likely in Governors' Races http://bit.ly/crG3N6

fivethirtyeight The good thing is, once a hurricane gets that far north, it's really hard for it to stay stronger than a Cat 2.

fivethirtyeight Hurricane Earl could threaten New England by Friday. Was supposed to go to ME for Labor Day. Hope all stay safe & dry. http://bit.ly/cX7hxP

fivethirtyeight Still, Miller may be suffering from a "negative bounce" of sorts so will want to see what the polls look like in 2 weeks.

fivethirtyeight Interesting data point: in 1994 -- awful year for Dems -- Alaska was the only state where they took over the governorship.

fivethirtyeight We should have a new Senate forecast out for you by the end of the week -- but first, need to get the Gov and House forecasts launched.

fivethirtyeight Looks like our regression model may have been lowballing Dems' chances in Alaska against Miller. http://bit.ly/aWec5G

fivethirtyeight Most over-polled state: New Jersey. Of ~2,000 gubernatorial polls in my database (all since '98), 150 are from New Jersey alone.

fivethirtyeight Here is one "trick" to browse the old (pre-NYT) 538 archives: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/archives

fivethirtyeight An example of why the polls -- and therefore our forecast model -- might overrate Charlie Crist's chances somewhat: http://bit.ly/cUgR9f

fivethirtyeight [new article] In Nevada, No One Is Someone to Watch http://bit.ly/bOn7Jk

fivethirtyeight Think I may have jinxed Murkowski by insisting that we run the Senate model through assuming her winning to save a few minutes in the AM.

fivethirtyeight [new article] Tuesday Night Live http://bit.ly/b2Qa3O

fivethirtyeight Blanche Lincoln is more likely to win her Senate race than Alvin Greene. But only slightly.